Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper presents a history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: The abstract for a paper that describes the history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. Presented at The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure symposium held July 14-15, 2005 in Washington, DC.

Description: This 1978 session focused on valuation techniques for pension plans. Topics covered: 1. Asset Valuation Methods 2. Use of projections and forecasts 3. Has application of forecasts allowed the actuary to determine short range best estimate of future costs different from traditional methods? 4. Treatment of salary scales, turnover assumptions, retirement decrements

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: This paper investigates a fundamental approach to the development of the expected cost of vesting in pension plans. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1972, Vol. 24, Pt. 1, No. 70.

Description: Genetic algorithms [GAs] and neural networks [NNs] are currently being used in actuarial and financial modeling. Nonetheless, while there is a general awareness of the nature of these techniques, there is often only vague familiarity with the details of how they are implemented. This paper is intended to help alleviate this situation. Its purpose is to present an overview of GAs and NNs, which includes an explanation of what they are, how they work, and an example of how they are implemented.

Description: The study is based on a sample of actuarial reports attached to the form 550C3, Schedule B, which were sent to the Department of Labor during the period June 1976 to May 1977.

Description: This is a August 1, 1990 memorandum sent to selected members of the Society of Actuaries announcing the creation of an Education and Research Section. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 1991 Vol. 1.

Description: This article uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore pension cost projection variability. The analysis includes the specifications of the model and how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for pension cost projections.